How much can a clue really tell us?

A claim is a statement about something. Evidence is information that helps establish whether it is justified. Tracing a claim to its original record makes clear what was actually observed and what someone added later. Several copies of one report are still based on one report.

The coverage of the record matters. An archive with ten surviving reports from Street A and none from Street B does not show that Street B had no views. Its records may be missing. A conclusion about everyone would need evidence that reaches beyond the surviving group.

The direction of a rule matters as well. “If rain is recorded, an alert is on” says what follows from recorded rain. Seeing an alert does not by itself prove rain was recorded: another reason for the alert may exist.

A number also needs a clear meaning. Four rainy days out of ten recorded days describes that particular set. It is not automatically a forecast or a claim about every season. Keeping the source, coverage, rule and denominator clear helps the conclusion stay within what the evidence supports.